New York Yankees,7-27-2020, Free Picks And Predictions
New York Yankees (2-1) @Philadelphia Phillies (1-2)
MLB Baseball: Monday, July 27, 2020 @ 7:05 PM (Citizen Bank Park)
J.A. Happ (LHP, 0-0,- – – ERA, 0 Ks) vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP, 0-0,- – – ERA, 0 Ks)
The Yanks notched their first series victory of 2020 yesterday and now they are looking to keep the momentum going. The New York Yankees will head to Philadelphia for an evening matchup against the Phillies in Citizen Bank Park. As the two ballclubs will square off in a four game set, the Yankees will try to maintain their momentum atop the AL East (American League East).
I know it is a bit too early to keep tabs the records of each baseball team, but with the Yankees getting the series win in Washington, they are now tied atop the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays. As a result of the Yanks pushing pass the reigning World Series champs, Aaron Boone’s squad is now tied with the Tampa Bay Rays with a 2-1 record and a .667 PCT. For those who don’t what PCT. means, it is a stat that refers to the two teams who are tied for the all-time best single record. With that being said, in a 60 game sprint season, the Yankees need to remain dominant from the start to the finish.
I will try to give you a preview of the competition that will go done tonight. The Yanks will look to add another win to their records, while the Phillies will try to bounce back from a disappointing start to their season.
While the Yanks got their first season win with a 3-2 victory on Sunday, the Phillies are already facing early disappointment because they are coming off a terrible series loss against the lowly Marlins. Right now, to add to their concerns, their bullpen is not their hot ticketed feature.
I just hope the Bronx Squad can capitalize on the Phillies’ current weakness. Here is today’s lineup for each team:
Yankees Preview
Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)
| Player | Projected BaseRuns |
|---|---|
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.57 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.73 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.67 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.71 |
| Aaron Hicks | 0.50 |
| Luke Voit | 0.59 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.63 |
| Giovanny Urshela | 0.46 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.52 |
| Total Projected BaseRuns | 5.38 |
On the mound for the Yankees, Boone will pencil in J.A. Happ for tonight’s start. In 2019, Happ was starting to show his age. The 37-year-old posted a 4.78 ERA/5.22 FIP/4.78 xFIP — his worst numbers in more than five years. Happ is predominantly a fastball pitcher, but has three complimentary pitches that play well off his fastball.
Since he is getting up there in age, his fastball is losing its velocity and effectiveness. In 2019, his fastball yielded 25 home runs and a .367 wOBA. For Happ’s secondary pitches to be effective, he has to be precise with his fastball, otherwise he’ll continue to post high ERA and xFIP numbers in 2020. Honestly though, with the offensive production of the Yankees so far, I am too worried about the Yankees score card numbers tonight.
| Pitch Type | % Thrown | Velocity | Opp/ wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 48.4% | 92.0 | .367 |
| Sinker | 17.5% | 89.6 | .291 |
| Slider | 17.4% | 84.8 | .302 |
| Changeup | 15.9% | 86.0 | .307 |
| Curveball | 0.8% | 81.0 | .174 |
After being shut down on opening day, the Phillies’ offense has come alive, scoring 13 runs on 19 hits over their last two games. However, those two games were against the Marlins, so take those results with a pinch of salt.
According to actionnetwork.com: “After adding Bryce Harper last season, the Phillies didn’t do much to their lineup over the offseason. They ranked near the middle of MLB last season against lefties, so they should be able to hit an aging J.A. Happ.” Yes, that is concerning, but I believe in my Yankees.
As the Phils will go up against Happ, Jake Arrieta will take on the lethal Yankee offense. It looks like both squads have an issue on the starting pitching front.
Arrieta has taken a big step back since joining the Phillies. The reason for that is his sinker is a lot less effective than it used to be.
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
| Pitch Type | % Thrown | Velocity | Opp/ wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 48.4% | 92.0 | .367 |
| Sinker | 17.5% | 89.6 | .291 |
| Slider | 17.4% | 84.8 | .302 |
| Changeup | 15.9% | 86.0 | .307 |
| Curveball | 0.8% | 81.0 | .174 |
During his breakout season in 2015, Arrieta was dominant with his sinker, allowing only a .191 BA and a .236 wOBA to his opponents. Fast forward to 2019, and he allowed a .304 BA and a .366 wOBA against his sinker. However, his changeup and curveball were pretty effective in 2019 with a wOBA against below .275.
He’ll have to use those two pitches more in 2020 if he wants to get back to some semblance of his 2015 season. Arrieta will have the lineup down below to back him:
Phillies Preview
Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)
| Player | Projected BaseRuns |
|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.62 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.65 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.73 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.59 |
| Jean Segura | 0.56 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.58 |
| Scott Kingery | 0.45 |
| Phil Gosselin | 0.27 |
| Roman Quinn | 0.42 |
| Total Projected BaseRuns | 4.87 |
MY PICK
For tonight’s baseball game between the two squads, I will be backing the Yankees. It would seem that both starters aren’t at their best right now, but the Yanks have an advantage because they have one of the best bullpen in baseball. The Yankees have one of the best 7th-9th inning bullpen combos in the league. However, beyond those three it’s a bunch of average relievers. The front end of the Phillies’ bullpen is solid, but their back end isn’t that great, so the Yankees bullpen has the advantage in this matchup.
The Pinstriped Baseball Lane 